APM Terminals forecasts recovery of record decrease in import volumes

The first half of the year is almost over and the Nordic region’s largest container port, APM Terminals Gothenburg, is once again setting the pace in the container market. In summary, the total Swedish container market fell by six percent, while APM Terminals Gothenburg grew by eight percent in the first quarter, compared to the same period last year.  

Historically low import volumes 

Bottlenecks, queuing ships, and overcrowded container ports are a thing of the past. Nevertheless, it's not all 'smooth sailing' for the container market. In the first quarter of 2023, the total Swedish container market fell by six per cent and ended up at the same level as the pandemic in 2020, when weak imports were to blame.  

"Swedish ports with a high proportion of imports are now being hit very hard. Sweden’s imports fell by no less than 25 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, compared with the same period last year. We haven't seen such low import volumes in a decade, except for when the pandemic hit. At APM Terminals, we got off a bit more lightly, with an import decrease of 18.5 per cent," says Per Wahlström, market analyst at APM Terminals Gothenburg.  

"However, not all segments are performing equally weakly. Imports for basic industries and the low-price segment continue to perform well. We can conclude that the desire to make purchases remains, but inflation and tighter budgets mean that a lot of people will choose a lower price range," he continues.   

Increased exports at APM Terminals Gothenburg 

Exports from the Swedish market fell by almost three percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022. At APM Terminals Gothenburg, on the other hand, export volumes have increased by just over 13 per cent.  

"Exports are still being driven by the forestry industry. Forestry products, such as paper for packaging, are in high demand on the global market, especially in line with increased climate awareness," Per Wahlström adds.  

Future prospects 

With declining inflation, import volumes are expected to increase. APM Terminals is already experiencing a return to more normal levels in the second quarter of 2023. 

"Companies have been struggling for a long time to sell all of their stocks and now they're having to replenish them quickly. Sweden is dependent on imports in order for the country to run economically, so we're convinced that import volumes will recover.  

Exports are also expected to increase. APM Terminals Gothenburg is forecasting a total market increase of four percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. One reason is the current overcapacity in the market. 

"New ships that shipping companies ordered during the pandemic will be delivered in the middle of this year. The overcapacity will lead to increased pressure on freight prices, which is expected to further benefit Swedish exports as goods will be converted from bulk to containers to a greater extent," Per Wahlström concludes.